Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,643$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(318 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,573.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 70.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,573.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.92 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(57.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $243$ on 2020-06-27

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,800$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(597 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{701,904.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 130.0)}}\) (asimptote \(701,904.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,413$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(36.4 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,364.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 82.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,364.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,293$ on 2020-06-27

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,690$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(170 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,659.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 83.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,659.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $153$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{688.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(688.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,600$ on 2020-06-27

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $63,923$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(983 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,175.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 100.3)}}\) (asimptote \(111,175.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,708$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(73 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,075$ on 2020-06-27

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,025$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,737.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 88.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,737.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.754 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.7}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 72.1)}}\) (asimptote \(126.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,560$ on 2020-06-27

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,001$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(96.9 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,897.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 68.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,897.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.84 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,454$ on 2020-06-27

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,091$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(34.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,171.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,171.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(0.461 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $511$ on 2020-06-27

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,968$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,205.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 62.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13,205.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $892$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(174 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{861.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(861.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,874$ on 2020-06-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chad recovered 97%
Djibouti recovered 90%
Uganda recovered 84%
Sierra Leone recovered 19%

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $865$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{864.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(864.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(29.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{71.5}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 14.8)}}\) (asimptote \(71.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-27

Uganda⮸

Population $45,741,007$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $848$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(45.4 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,005.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 63.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,005.6\)) 
Uganda doesn't yet have 4.5741 dead per thousand.

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-06-27

Sierra Leone⮸

Population $7,976,983$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,410$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(136 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,475.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,475.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59$ on 2020-06-27

Best fit exponential: \(14.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 23.2)}}\) (asimptote \(53.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $414$ on 2020-06-27